Week 4

[Pete]

Day 1 of our 4th live week and the 1st of the day does the biz yet again. Small profit at 1.96 but 2.1+ was available earlier in the day

[Pete]

Oooh what a drag waiting till the 3rd selection to make 1.7pts

[jeffers539]

I notice that there don't seem to be any posts other than Pete & Daniel. is this a glitz in the system? I put one up a while back and it didn't appear.

[Pete]

Mighty strange Jeffers and one for Dan to answer mate.

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Damn drat and bo***x!!!!

I really dont like Doncaster especially when the fields are so big but decided to include em in todays picks. Result was a dire day which could only have improved if Donny was omitted. Still we are only about 4pts down on the week with four days to go so i'm confident we'll make a 4th week of profit.

[Pete]

3rd race and just under half a point back. Three days left to keep the positive run going.

[jeffers539]

(02-25-2010 04:11 AM)Pete Wrote:  Mighty strange Jeffers and one for Dan to answer mate.

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Pete,
I'll repeat my origional lost comment.

All seems well since the start at SAP. In general I'm not a fan of SAP or SAW as you could win the 1st race on a day full of winners and then hit the next day all losers which would mean a subtantial loss and missing out on the unbet winners. I'd be interested to know how far back recorded results go and within those results how backing all selections fared against SAP. What is the reasoning behind going with SAP apart from the obvious fact that this is the staking format which is currently showing a profit? I guess an early winner at shortish prices helps SAP and punishes All Bets, is the only way that I can figure it.

[jeffers539]

A bad day on Thursday despite having 3 winners, although there was nearly a 'Father Christmas' moment when Stick Together looked like he was going to get up at odds of 13.68 BFSP. I take on board the suggestion of a 'Bail Out' at -3 points, but as per my previous post, the next selection has no idea that the previous one lost so in regard of the horses winning chance, it makes no difference. It's going to be sod's law in the future when punters bail out at -3 only to see the next 3 or 4 selections hack up easily to ensure a recovery and a profit. This is always the 'achillies heel' of staking plans especially SAP or SAW. My question is, regardless whether SAP/SAW and Bail Out at -3 is profitable or not, what is the reasoning? Just fitting it to past results isn't logic enough.

If anyone is familiar with the FP System which is an SAW plan, it can take 2 months to recover from a losing day. In the case of PP the SAP will also push back profits when a large losing day comes along, but not as draconian as FP was, but having said all of that it's still showing a healthy profit at SAP since the trial began despite the losers.

Just a few thoughts, not a knock.

[Daniel]

I appreciate your comments jeffers, it is good to have one of our members contribute to the forum.

The SAP plan is intended to create modest but more importantly consistent profits. We hope to make profiting from betting take as little time as possible. SAP usually ensures that you are done betting for the day and are taking a profit after 1/2 hours.

With the introduction of the stop-loss we will know that the maximum we can lose in a day is around 3pts. Our average PPD is roughly 1.6pts which also takes into account losing days (before the SL was introduced). Yes, we will miss out on some days where the next selection after the SL is a winner but it will also mean that a losing day only negates 2 profitable days.

Heavy losing days will occur, as will decent winning ones but both are few and far between, so we will aim to get our profit and get out.

Thanks again for your comments jeffers.

[jeffers539]

Things are not going great at the moment against the trend, but let's remember that it's the 'Silly Season' in the Jumps/Flat crossover.

BTW, the big meetings Cheltenham, Aintree are betting suicide IMHO.

[Pete]

Indeed we learnt our lesson with Cheltenham jeffers and obviously left Aintree out of the equation this week. As we all know the transition between NH & Flat and visa versa is always a strange time.